Russian Media Poll on Northern Territories

The Russian state-owned media RT (Russia Today) recently ran an article (read here) about a poll taken of the Russian public showing an overwhelming majority of Russians oppose any deal to return the Northern Territories to Japan in exchange for a peace treaty with Japan. According to the survey, a majority of 56% said Russia retaining the Northern Territories was more important than a peace treaty with Japan, even if that were to include giving Russia access to Japanese technology and financial loans. For the question of giving up the entire Kuril Island chain, 78% of Russians opposed that, while a still overwhelming majority of 71% opposed giving up even the two southernmost islands, Habomai & Shikotan, while keeping the rest. Another compromise offered was to ask if the people would approve of a deal by which Russia acknowledged the Northern Territories as belonging to Japan but retained control of the islands for Russia and a still massive majority of 69% opposed even that nominal concession, which would actually change nothing. Less than half of the Russians polled, 48%, said that a peace treaty with Japan was important.

Soon, Prime Minister Abe and President Putin are scheduled to meet in Vladivostok as PM Abe has been desperately working throughout his time in office to come to an agreement with Russia, to return the Northern Territories to Japan and normalize Russo-Japanese relations. However, the simple fact that this study of public opinion was even undertaken at all shows that Russia has no intention to ever return the Northern Territories to Japan willingly. They have already invested a great deal in building up the military facilities on the islands with air and naval bases and can hardly afford to simple strip all of that down and give the islands away. The actions of the Russian government and the views of the majority of the Russian people have been pretty clear that while they would be pleased to have a treaty normalizing relations with Japan, they are not prepared to forfeit any territory they control in order to obtain that. It is quite a different attitude from that taken towards their new partners in the People's Republic of China. In that case, Russia did cede territory to China in order to obtain the current relationship between the two countries.

There is, however, one other view which, while not related in the article, can be seen numerous times in the 'comment' section which is that the impediment to an agreement over the islands is the current alliance between the United States and Japan. Numerous comments make the claim that Japan is not really an independent country at all but simply a dependency of the United States and that if the islands were returned to Japan, they would soon be hosting American military bases. This, of course, is nothing new. The Russians made the same argument during the Meiji era at the time of the Russo-Japanese War, portraying Japan as being the instrument of the English-speaking powers as seen here:

It was taken for granted in the Russian Empire that the only reason the Japanese were able to win the war against them was because of British and American support. Attitudes have clearly not changed. However, one can give the Russians or, at least, the Russian-sympathizers reading the article above, the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps this is true. How does that affect the situation?

A re-alignment of the international situation is not beyond the realm of possibility considering what is being discussed in the current U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump is widely seen as being much more inclined toward Russia and President Putin than past American leaders. He has at the very least strongly implied that America should not be so concerned about Russia and stay out of the affairs between Russia and Russia's neighbors. Trump has also been less than enthusiastic about maintaining American military bases around the world in allied countries. If Trump were to win the election, it is not then beyond the realm of possibility that the United States might ultimately close its military bases in Japan and withdraw American forces from the country. After all, Japan has considerably more influence than The Philippines and when the Filipino government ordered American military forces to withdraw from their country, which included the largest U.S. naval base in the world outside American territory (at Subic Bay), the United States packed up its gear and went home. If that were to happen with Japan, and if the Russians are correct that the American alliance with Japan rather than the Russian alliance with China is the real impediment to improved relations, that could be ended and we would be able to see the truth of the matter clearly.

Russia Sends a Message to Japan

Despite the ongoing efforts of the Abe administration to improve relations between the governments in Moscow and Tokyo, Russia has sent a very clear and very unfriendly message to Japan concerning the Northern Territories. Despite repeated Japanese requests to the contrary, Russian Prime Minister and former President Dmitry Medvedev visited the disputed Japanese territory, occupied by Russia illegally in the last days of World War II. Because of this, a planned visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, to Russia will probably be delayed or canceled and a protest was given to the Russian ambassador in Tokyo. Prime Minister Abe expressed criticism of Russia’s action but, as usual, still said he holds out hope for talks with Russia and resolving the territorial dispute. This, of course, is not the first time this has happened even during the current phase of the dialogue between Japan and Russia (see past posts on the subject here and here) and the continuation of this cycle has, so far, been detrimental to Japan. Russia has conceded nothing and has continued to send officials to visit the islands against the wishes of Japan even though refraining from doing so would cost Russia nothing.

It should be perfectly clear to all by now that Russia has no intention of returning the occupied territory to Japan or even having a serious discussion about the issue. Not long ago Prime Minister Medvedev announced that Russia would be investing 70 billion rubles in the region (which amounts to about $1.4 billion) as part of what he claimed was an effort to improve living conditions for the Russians who have taken up residence on the islands since World War II. There are about 20,000 Russians now living on the island chain and so such a sum would amount to an astounding $70,000 per person in order to, as Medvedev claimed, “improve living conditions”. Obviously, such a large amount of money would not be spent on the territory by Russia if they had any intention of returning the islands to Japan. Russia has also built up naval facilities there and has reportedly moved two new Borei-class nuclear missile submarines to the Vilyuchinsk submarine base in Kamchatka, armed with multiple nuclear warhead ballistic missiles, to threaten the United States. The Russian military has said that their control over the entire Kurile island chain is vital to protecting these offensive weapons in the Okhotsk Sea.

This action also suggests that President Vladimir Putin may not have been at all sincere in his previous offer to return the less strategically significant islands of Shikotan and Habomai to Japan, an offer which the Japanese government rejected as it would mean endorsing the illegal occupation of the remainder of the islands which have always been considered an integral part of Japan. While this Russian military buildup has been going on, Russia has also been very critical of Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to allow for collective self-defense and increased national security for Japan. This is, of course, totally in concert with the wishes of China which does not want to see Japan strengthened and which continues to try to isolate Japan on the world stage. The way the Abe regime has persisted in pushing for dialogue in spite of repeated and very public insults by the Russian government has made Japan appear weak. However, the Russians themselves have been failing in their overall strategic plan for East Asia and are increasingly becoming subordinate to the Chinese.

Putin adviser Sergei Glazyev stated not very long ago, in a policy manifesto, that Russia must ally with the growing power of China but avoid becoming a Chinese vassal by also strengthening ties with other Asian powers such as India, Korea, Japan, Iran and Vietnam. However, the Chinese policy of expansion has thwarted any Russian effort to broaden its base of support in Asia beyond China. India has been alarmed by the presence of Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean, Vietnam has been confronted by China at sea and even though Vietnam is the most recent American enemy in the region, Chinese aggression has caused a softening in Vietnam toward the United States so that U.S. naval vessels are now stopping at Vietnamese ports. As Chinese aggression continues, Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam and others are all becoming more concerned about security and have looked to strengthen cooperation on defense matters with the U.S. and Australia. Russia is tied to China, everyone can see that, and it doesn’t help that this policy of greater defense cooperation is exactly why Prime Minister Abe is pushing to allow for collective self-defense by Japan, a move which Russia opposes and it is clear that this is in lock-step with the Chinese. All of this shows how Russia is becoming more and more beholden to China alone and recent events have shown that China is not quite the economic powerhouse everyone believed it was.

It should be clear that Japan will gain nothing by further dialogue with Russia over the Northern Territories. However, as China has returned to more classically communist policies under the current dictator, their economy has started a downturn. If Japan continues to strengthen itself and sticks to common sense policies, it can survive the coming storm while Russia may prove to be tied to disastrously inept government in China. Eventually, if things continue as they are, Japan will be in a much stronger position and Russia may be obliged to finally address the issue of the Northern Territories with sincerity and a more respectful attitude toward Japan.

Northern Territories Day

Today is Northern Territories Day in Japan and, speaking at a rally, Prime Minister Abe promised to resolve the dispute with Russia as soon as possible, before the current generation passes away that was expelled from the islands in an ethnic cleansing campaign by Russia following the seizure of the islands by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. For details on the Northern Territories dispute, review this past article. Abe said that he would do this based on the personal relationship he has established with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The dispute is the primary reason why there has never been a treaty between Russia and Japan ending the Second World War. Abe expressed "strong hope" that the matter could be resolved but there seems to be few facts to support any such optimism. Russia has also spoken favorably of ending the dispute but only in a way that favors Russia, in other words, Russia favors Japan desisting from claiming islands that Moscow considers Russian territory. Indeed, only hours after Prime Minister Abe made his remarks, there was a response from the Russian government, reaffirming their position that the islands belong to Russia and that Japan has no grounds for contesting this.

What makes this all the more frustrating is that the Abe government has been publicly disrespected on this issue in the past. For several years now the Russians have said that if Japan wants to resolve this dispute, it should "adjust its policy" toward Russia. Well, Abe did just that such as in the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. While voicing support for the United States and European Union that objected to the Russian expansion, Japan did not really take part in the sanctions against Russia because Abe hoped that this would win Putin's goodwill and bring about the return of the Northern Territories. Russia responded with a diplomatic 'slap in the face' to Japan by Putin sending one of his closest aids to the disputed islands as a way of showing the Russian flag there. Abe then responded by belatedly joining in the sanctions and Russia publicly insulted Japan, saying that the Japanese were not capable of handling their own foreign affairs. Nothing of substance has changed since that time, so it does not seem that President Putin is prepared to be reasonable about the Northern Territories issue.

Relations between Russia and China have also only grown stronger in recent years as China dominates the purchasing and much of the operation of the Russian energy industry in the Russian Far East. If Russia made even the slightest move toward coming to an agreement with Japan over the Northern Territories, China would surely object. That Russia would not risk offending China should be clear. There were Sino-Russian territorial disputes as well and Putin ended those by giving up territory claimed by China. He has never shown any indication of giving up territory that is Japanese. The problem is that Japan has no bargaining leverage over Russia. Japan must strengthen itself in all sectors so that Russia cannot comfortably continue to ignore the Japanese position.

Russia Insults Japan

As reported in this article from the BBC, Japan has imposed sanctions on Russia, in concert with most of the rest of the Free World after the Russian government of President Vladimir Putin sent one of his closest aides to visit the Northern Territories, reaffirming Russia's determination to hold on to these parts of Japanese territory. Prime Minister Abe, in a rather naive move, had been trying very hard to win the friendship and approval of Russia in the hope that they would begin serious discussions about returning the Northern Territories to Japan after illegally seizing them at the end of World War II. Japan had held off from enacting the sanctions agreed to by other leading countries in the world for fear of offending Russia over the incursions into Ukraine at a time when the Abe government was trying to win favor with President Putin. Now, Russia has made it clear that they will make no concessions and have even insulted Japan on the world stage by saying that Japan is incapable of managing its own foreign affairs. Clearly, however, the only mistake made here was Abe thinking that he gain anything from the President of Russia.

The entire thing was a naive and useless exercise. What Russia wants in the short term is a market to sell its energy and weapons and in East Asia the massive population of China means that they have a far larger market than Japan, with its smaller and rapidly shrinking population, could ever have. Additionally, when it comes to weapons, Japan already has or has access to far superior weaponry than what could be purchased from the Russians. So, Russia has drawn closer and closer to China and as Chinese influence in Moscow increases so it becomes more assured that Russia would never show any consideration to Japan. Russia has handed over hundreds of square kilometers of territory to Communist China but will not budge at all on the issue of the Northern Territories with Japan. The simple fact is that there is nothing Japan has that Russia really needs and it is in the interests of Russia to keep Japan dangling on promises, to keep Tokyo trying to please Moscow and this latest "charm offensive" by Abe has sent the signal, unfortunately, to Russia that Japan will make concessions in exchange for nothing concrete but merely the hope of something in the future.

So, Russia has come out looking stronger and even goes the extra step to speak out in such a way to humiliate Japan as much as possible. Without conceding anything, Russia was able to exploit the hope of the Abe government to induce Japan to break ranks with her closest allies to hold off on actual sanctions in exchange for nothing but the possibility of future good will. Then, after Japan had gone out on a limb in diplomatic terms to try to keep Russia happy, the Russians have slammed the door in Abe's face and publicly humiliated Japan which is now rushing to catch up and join in the sanctions regime that was given little more than lip-service in the beginning. The problem between Japan and Russia is a fundamental and long-term one that really neither side can do anything about, which is why there has been almost constant friction between the two countries since they first came into contact with each other. In the long-term, problems between the two countries come down to geography. As always, Russia would still like a warm-water port or the exclusive use of a warm-water port on the Pacific. This has been a driving goal of Russian foreign policy in East Asia for centuries. However, the problem is that even if Russia managed to gain such a port from China or Korea, Japan is still placed geographically to shut off access to such a port and render it useless. This is why Russia once tried to seize Tsushima island and it is why, so long as geography is the way it is, Japan will find it impossible to please Russia without giving Russian security and national interest priority over those of Japan.

Japan and the Ukraine Crisis

Recently, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that it supported the position of the United States and other countries opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea but that (like Germany, Britain and other countries in Europe) Japan would not go along with the United States in any harsh sanctions against Russia. This is significant because of the extensive investment by Japanese companies in the Russian Far East/Siberia. However, what is problematic is that the reason given for Japan not supporting any sanctions regime was not the (reasonable) possibility that such sanctions could hurt the Japanese economy more than the Russian economy, partly because of the energy Japan obtains from Russia which is another reason why the blanket shut-down of nuclear power was a mistake. Rather, the reason most often put out in the media for Japan refusing to agree to sanctions was the raised hopes that Russia and Japan will be able to reach an agreement for the return of the Northern Territories to Japanese control since these islands were stolen from Japan by the Soviet Union after World War II, in violation of numerous Russo-Japanese treaties. This may prove to be faulty reasoning on the part of the Japanese government, particularly if the hope of a return of the Northern Territories leads instead to the loss of the Senkaku Islands to Communist China.

To be blunt, it should be obvious that Russia has no intention of doing the right thing and returning the Northern Territories to Japan. Russia has resolved territorial disputes in the past with China and it was mostly in favor of the Chinese, they could have done the same with Japan but chose not to. On the contrary, since Putin came to power the Russians have militarized the Northern Territories and stepped up their rhetoric over keeping the stolen islands forever. China and Russia have drawn closer together in recent years and that means an increasingly unfriendly Russian attitude toward Japan. As concerns Ukraine, Japan really has no interest in the region and no immediate reason to be favorable to the new Ukrainian regime, however, Communist China is watching the situation closely and it could have a long-term impact on Japan if the Chinese decide to imitate the actions of Russia, seeing that there are no consequences for Russia seizing Ukrainian territory they may decide to do the same and seize the Senkaku Islands thinking there will be no retaliation from the international community. They may even play it safer and wait until Abe is out of office and a new Japanese government takes over that is less likely to use force to defend Japanese territory. It is a serious situation that should be considered carefully. One thing that should be clear though is that hoping Russia will do the right thing and return the Northern Territories if Japan is cooperative is hope that is misplaced. Russia has, very foolishly, allowed themselves to become more beholden to China and it is extremely unlikely that they will do the right thing in relation to Japan.

The Northern Territories Dispute

Not many people are probably aware of the fact that World War II in the Pacific is not really “over” yet. That is because there has never been an official peace treaty, ending the war between Japan and Russia. Why is that, you may ask? The answer is because of some more disputed islands, this time in the North Pacific, known as the south Kuril Islands in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan. These are a few, small, rather insignificant islands which are controlled by Russia but claimed by Japan. As with most territorial disputes involving Japan and her, oh-so-courageous, republican neighbors, it only came about after the Japanese defeat in World War II, after Japan enacted a constitution that forbid warfare as a means of settling disputes. How convenient. To understand this problem though, we need to go back to the beginning. Today the disputed islands are Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomai Islands, keep those names in mind.

The northern islands between Japan and Russia had been a source of confusion and dispute even before the two countries had any diplomatic relations with each other. When the two countries did finally sign a treaty, in 1855, the Treaty of Shimoda, it specified that the border between the Empires of Russia and Japan would run between the islands of Etorofu and Uruppu. So the island of Etorofu and everything south belonged to Japan and Uruppu and everything north belonged to the Kuril Islands of Russia. The islands of Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomai Islands, all south of Etorofu, were all recognized as belonging to the Empire of Japan and, in fact, their status was never even in dispute. The bigger issue had always been the larger island of Sakhalin which was inhabited by both Russian and Japanese nationals. To keep the peace, both countries agreed to share Sakhalin. This, however, proved impossible and so in the 1875 Treaty of St Petersburg the Japanese gave all Sakhalin to Russia completely in exchange for which the Russians gave up all of the Kuril Islands to Japan. Later, after the Russo-Japanese War, the peace treaty gave the southern half of Sakhalin back to Japan but nothing else changed.

Later, in 1941, the Empire of Japan and the Soviet Union signed a non-aggression pact in which both promised to respect the territorial borders of the other and to take no part in any conflict that involved Japan or the Soviet Union with a third power. It was signed in April of 1941 and was stipulated to be valid for five years, so it would not have expired until April of 1946. The Empire of Japan was scrupulously faithful to this agreement and this is why, for example, when her fellow Axis partners Germany and Italy invaded the Soviet Union only a couple of months later, Japan took no part. The only mistake Japan made was in assuming that communists ever keep their word or honor their agreements. In spite of the non-aggression pact, the Soviet Union agreed with Britain and America to go to war with Japan after Germany was defeated in Europe. Of course, because communists are as cowardly as they are untrustworthy, the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin waited until after the war had already effectively been won and after America had dropped one atomic bomb on Japan and one day before they dropped the second, to suddenly stab the Japanese in the back and invade the pro-Japanese Empire of Manchukuo. They grabbed everything of military or industrial value, looting basically the entire infrastructure set up by Japan before going on to loot, rape and murder the Manchu populace. Three days after Japan surrendered to the Allies, Soviet forces also moved in to invade and occupy the Kuril Islands.

Now, it is important to remember that when the Allies were dividing up the spoils, so to speak, to be gained from a defeated Japan that these islands were not included. The drive to gain territory at the expense of Japan was mostly driven by the Republic of China which was eager to take advantage of Japan losing World War II (mostly to the United States) to regain all territory lost in conflicts with Japan previously that had nothing to do with the Second World War. So, the Cairo Declaration of 1943 stated that, “Japan will also be expelled from all other territories which she has taken by violence and greed”. Now, keep in mind that the islands in dispute today and, in fact, one could say all of the Kuril Islands (which Japan does not claim) were not part of this since Russia recognized from their very first diplomatic agreement with Japan that these islands were Japanese territory and the rest of the Kuril Islands were not gained “by violence and greed” but by a peaceful agreement with Russia in exchange for the Japanese half of Sakhalin.

When the official treaty ending the war between Japan and the Allies was signed, the Treaty of San Francisco, the Soviet Union refused to sign on, in part because the treaty did not recognize the Soviet right to the islands they had occupied. In 1956 a Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration was signed to end the state of war between these two countries prior to a permanent peace treaty, a peace treaty which has still not been agreed to. In the declaration the Soviets agreed to return the Habomai and Shikotan Islands to Japan to be carried out after a permanent peace treaty was signed but that has never happened. More might have been done at the time but the United States objected in 1956 and to this day Japan and Russia have not agreed on who should control which islands. Today Russia still claims that even the islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri are part of the Kurils and thus Russian territory in spite of the fact that, as mentioned at the beginning, the Russian Empire never claimed these islands and in their original treaty with Japan in 1855 recognized them as Japanese territory. The fact should also be reiterated that the entire Kuril island chain was not gained by Japan by violence but by peaceful territorial exchange and Japan does not claim all of these islands or the southern half of Sakhalin that was lost to the Soviets after World War II. All Japan claims is those islands which had been recognized as Japanese territory by Russia from the very beginning.

Unfortunately, in the years since, Russia has chose only to exacerbate the issue. When the Soviets first occupied the islands, they rounded up all the inhabitants, over 17,000 people, and deported them to Japan -what some people would call ethnic cleansing. Since the Putin-Medvedev regime in Russia started to take measures to befriend Communist China, tensions between Russia and Japan over the islands have increased. A visit by President Medvedev in 2010 provoked Japan to sever diplomatic relations with Russia and in 2011 Russia began militarizing the islands. In 2013, in an effort to salvage the situation, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin but, as yet, no agreement has been reached nor does the current situation inspire much cause for optimism as Russia has declared that a Japanese recognition of Russian sovereignty over the islands is a prerequisite to any negotiations on the matter and, of course, Russian sovereignty over the islands is exactly the matter in dispute to be negotiated over. So, Japan says, “they belong to us” and Russia says, “they belong to us” and when Japan says, “we seem to have a disagreement, let us discuss the issue”, Russia responds with, “we will discuss it if you agree first that they belong to us”. It is a completely ridiculous situation and seems all the more so coming from what is the largest country on earth, referring to these miniscule and practically valueless islands gained illegally by a violation of their word of honor as “an important region of our country”. It is an unjust violation of Japan for Russia to hold these islands and a shame that the Russia of today should defend the criminal behavior of the Soviet regime they succeeded.