Russia Insults Japan

As reported in this article from the BBC, Japan has imposed sanctions on Russia, in concert with most of the rest of the Free World after the Russian government of President Vladimir Putin sent one of his closest aides to visit the Northern Territories, reaffirming Russia's determination to hold on to these parts of Japanese territory. Prime Minister Abe, in a rather naive move, had been trying very hard to win the friendship and approval of Russia in the hope that they would begin serious discussions about returning the Northern Territories to Japan after illegally seizing them at the end of World War II. Japan had held off from enacting the sanctions agreed to by other leading countries in the world for fear of offending Russia over the incursions into Ukraine at a time when the Abe government was trying to win favor with President Putin. Now, Russia has made it clear that they will make no concessions and have even insulted Japan on the world stage by saying that Japan is incapable of managing its own foreign affairs. Clearly, however, the only mistake made here was Abe thinking that he gain anything from the President of Russia.

The entire thing was a naive and useless exercise. What Russia wants in the short term is a market to sell its energy and weapons and in East Asia the massive population of China means that they have a far larger market than Japan, with its smaller and rapidly shrinking population, could ever have. Additionally, when it comes to weapons, Japan already has or has access to far superior weaponry than what could be purchased from the Russians. So, Russia has drawn closer and closer to China and as Chinese influence in Moscow increases so it becomes more assured that Russia would never show any consideration to Japan. Russia has handed over hundreds of square kilometers of territory to Communist China but will not budge at all on the issue of the Northern Territories with Japan. The simple fact is that there is nothing Japan has that Russia really needs and it is in the interests of Russia to keep Japan dangling on promises, to keep Tokyo trying to please Moscow and this latest "charm offensive" by Abe has sent the signal, unfortunately, to Russia that Japan will make concessions in exchange for nothing concrete but merely the hope of something in the future.

So, Russia has come out looking stronger and even goes the extra step to speak out in such a way to humiliate Japan as much as possible. Without conceding anything, Russia was able to exploit the hope of the Abe government to induce Japan to break ranks with her closest allies to hold off on actual sanctions in exchange for nothing but the possibility of future good will. Then, after Japan had gone out on a limb in diplomatic terms to try to keep Russia happy, the Russians have slammed the door in Abe's face and publicly humiliated Japan which is now rushing to catch up and join in the sanctions regime that was given little more than lip-service in the beginning. The problem between Japan and Russia is a fundamental and long-term one that really neither side can do anything about, which is why there has been almost constant friction between the two countries since they first came into contact with each other. In the long-term, problems between the two countries come down to geography. As always, Russia would still like a warm-water port or the exclusive use of a warm-water port on the Pacific. This has been a driving goal of Russian foreign policy in East Asia for centuries. However, the problem is that even if Russia managed to gain such a port from China or Korea, Japan is still placed geographically to shut off access to such a port and render it useless. This is why Russia once tried to seize Tsushima island and it is why, so long as geography is the way it is, Japan will find it impossible to please Russia without giving Russian security and national interest priority over those of Japan.