Japan and Donald Trump

One of the more interesting things about the surprising rise of Donald Trump to the rank of presumptive Republican nominee for President of the United States has been the reaction of foreign governments to his stated "America First" policy. Needless to say the most critical have been China and Mexico; the Chinese because Trump has accused them of ripping off the United States through currency manipulation and stealing American manufacturing jobs. He has openly threatened a 'trade war' with China. For Mexico it is the matter of Trump promising to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and make the Mexicans pay for it through trade tariffs. However, they are not the only ones who have expressed outrage over the possibility of a Trump presidency. Western Europe has denounced Trump's immigration policies as well as his promise to make all members of the NATO alliance pay their fair share rather than depending on America to shoulder the majority of the burden for defending the continent. There have also been various reactions to Trump from East Asia after he stated that Japan and South Korea should not depend so heavily on the American military for security and that, perhaps, the U.S. forces will pull out and these countries should develop their own nuclear arsenals to deter threats from North Korea. About the only major foreign leader who has been positive about the rise of Donald Trump is Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Whether Trump will be the next President of the United States we cannot know but he has already done an important service to the country by shaking up major positions and mindsets that everyone had taken for granted and he has revealed things about the rest of the world to the American people as well as revealing to the rest of the world the fact that the American people see things very differently than they do. In regards to Japan specifically, the reactions to Mr. Trump have been very interesting. Some, like internet-celebrity Yoko Mada ("Random Yoko") have exuberantly cheered Donald Trump, whereas others, on the left and the right (as in America) have been extremely critical of his campaign and have expressed opposition to a potential Trump presidency. However, what I find most fascinating is the number of people who say the oppose Donald Trump but who reveal themselves to be in favor of most of his policies, at least as it regards Japan, they just support them for different reasons. At the end of the day though, they are on the same page!

On matters of trade, many have taken offense at Trump for saying that Japan has been "ripping off" the United States since the United States buys far more goods from Japan than Japan buys from America. He typically says this in a more complimentary way though, saying that Japanese leaders have been smarter than their American counterparts and so it is the incompetence of American officials rather than the Japanese that is to blame for any problems in this regard. Critics of Trump, however, often oppose the current trade agreements and the proposed TPP deal, just for different reasons. So, what is the problem? Likewise, on national security matters, many of the same people who criticize Trump for saying that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, have also objected to U.S. military bases being in Japan, have opposed nuclear warships using Japanese ports and have pointed to the alliance with the United States as the reason why Japan has so much trouble with neighbors such as China, Russia and North Korea.

This sentiment has actually been mirrored in the United States with people on the left opposing U.S. military support for Japan because they sympathize with China and believe that if America withdraws its protection from Japan, the government in Tokyo will have no choice but to give in to Chinese demands on historical disagreements and make friends with China. Likewise, they believe that if the U.S. would only withdraw its military forces from Japan, the Japanese government would have to renounce the claim to the Northern Territories and finally sign a permanent peace treaty with Russia. For the left, the U.S. military alliance with Japan is the only impediment to these conclusions as they blame it for "propping up" the right-wing groups in Japan. Similarly, the left in Japan has long been opposed to the U.S. military presence in places such as Okinawa and favored repairing relations with China while some on the right in Japan have likewise blamed their lack of a strong, traditional military and national pride on the (secret) opposition from their 'all-powerful overlords' in Washington DC. Either way, it seems both sides should be supporting Donald Trump!

At the end of the day, what everyone should remember is that Trump is a businessman and so he tends to view things dispassionately in terms of a cost/benefit analysis. The mistake many people have made is in thinking that the current state of affairs benefits the United States. Trump and his success have revealed that Americans do not and have not seen such benefit. Even on the Democrat side, the popularity of Bernie Sanders who also thinks current trade agreements are unfair and also opposes American military involvement overseas, also points to how widespread this sentiment is. So, for Japan, the situation is actually very simple. Is the U.S.-Japan alliance a cost or a benefit? Would it be better to remain friends with America or make friends with China? If a new alliance system is called for, would a country such as India be as willing and as able to defend Japan as the United States? It is up to Japan to decide, as it always has been. In the meantime, Trump may be helping Japan either way by prompting the Japanese people to take national security more seriously and increase military strength, either to be an equal partner with Trump's America or to face current threats alone or alongside countries with less military strength than the U.S.A. which would still compel Japan to become stronger or give in to the demands of her neighbors.

It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out. The status quo is being questioned in a way it never has before and that, at least, is a good thing in my view.