Sanctions Restored Against DPRK

Recently the Abe government announced it was restoring the sanctions Japan previously held against the communist dictatorship of North Korea. These had been lifted in July 2014 in a good-will gesture that was supposed to be reciprocated by North Korea investigating the kidnapping of Japanese citizens by North Korea over several decades. Not surprisingly, the investigation has gone nowhere and so, now, the sanctions regime is back in place.

Is anyone really surprised by this? This outcome was to be expected from the very beginning and the only thing that is surprising is that anyone in the Abe administration thought that there would be genuine cooperation from the North Koreans. Did anyone really think that the DPRK would sincerely investigate, admit their wrong-doing, return the kidnapped citizens and punish the perpetrators? Of course not. The DPRK got what it wanted as soon as the sanctions were lifted, so they had no reason at all to cooperate, all they wanted to do was to play for time, keep the process going, in-name-only, for as long as possible so that the sanctions would stay off for as long as possible.

This is similar to the policy of the Obama administration in America towards Iran; lifting the sanctions first and then expecting reciprocity from the Iranians regarding their program to develop nuclear weapons. Once you lift the sanctions, the other side has already won and has no motivation to genuinely cooperate. Closer to home for Japan, this is similar to the previous embarrassment with the sanctions against Russia. Japan did not go along with the sanctions regime in the hope that this good-will gesture would be returned by Russia in some way regarding the Northern Territories issue. Instead, Japan was publicly insulted and then had to play 'catch-up' in joining the other countries in the sanctions. The whole fiasco was very damaging to the image of Japan on the world stage.

To deal with a brutal regime like North Korea, the only policy is one of strength. Although there is plenty of friction in their relationship, the DPRK is too dependent on mainland China for there to ever be a crack in the "bamboo curtain" on that front. At present, there is not much Japan can do but a policy of strength and unity between Japan, the United States and South Korea would go a long way to helping the situation. But, of course, we know the problem there. Real unity does not exist between South Korea and Japan due to continued antagonism and there are factions in all countries that are blatantly or inadvertently helping the Chinese to "divide and conquer". If these forces can be resisted and if the policy of recovery and strengthening in Japan can continue, then Japan will be well placed when the inevitable implosion of mainland China happens to assume a new leadership role in East Asia.