Japan and the Ukraine Crisis

Recently, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that it supported the position of the United States and other countries opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea but that (like Germany, Britain and other countries in Europe) Japan would not go along with the United States in any harsh sanctions against Russia. This is significant because of the extensive investment by Japanese companies in the Russian Far East/Siberia. However, what is problematic is that the reason given for Japan not supporting any sanctions regime was not the (reasonable) possibility that such sanctions could hurt the Japanese economy more than the Russian economy, partly because of the energy Japan obtains from Russia which is another reason why the blanket shut-down of nuclear power was a mistake. Rather, the reason most often put out in the media for Japan refusing to agree to sanctions was the raised hopes that Russia and Japan will be able to reach an agreement for the return of the Northern Territories to Japanese control since these islands were stolen from Japan by the Soviet Union after World War II, in violation of numerous Russo-Japanese treaties. This may prove to be faulty reasoning on the part of the Japanese government, particularly if the hope of a return of the Northern Territories leads instead to the loss of the Senkaku Islands to Communist China.

To be blunt, it should be obvious that Russia has no intention of doing the right thing and returning the Northern Territories to Japan. Russia has resolved territorial disputes in the past with China and it was mostly in favor of the Chinese, they could have done the same with Japan but chose not to. On the contrary, since Putin came to power the Russians have militarized the Northern Territories and stepped up their rhetoric over keeping the stolen islands forever. China and Russia have drawn closer together in recent years and that means an increasingly unfriendly Russian attitude toward Japan. As concerns Ukraine, Japan really has no interest in the region and no immediate reason to be favorable to the new Ukrainian regime, however, Communist China is watching the situation closely and it could have a long-term impact on Japan if the Chinese decide to imitate the actions of Russia, seeing that there are no consequences for Russia seizing Ukrainian territory they may decide to do the same and seize the Senkaku Islands thinking there will be no retaliation from the international community. They may even play it safer and wait until Abe is out of office and a new Japanese government takes over that is less likely to use force to defend Japanese territory. It is a serious situation that should be considered carefully. One thing that should be clear though is that hoping Russia will do the right thing and return the Northern Territories if Japan is cooperative is hope that is misplaced. Russia has, very foolishly, allowed themselves to become more beholden to China and it is extremely unlikely that they will do the right thing in relation to Japan.